Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 41 | 19.7 | 7.6% | 167 | 1.45% |
| 10-19 | 47 | 34.3 | 12.2% | 267 | 1.96% |
| 20-29 | 102 | 87.0 | 31.2% | 683 | 3.26% |
| 30-39 | 95 | 51.0 | 19.4% | 424 | 3.12% |
| 40-49 | 59 | 30.7 | 11.4% | 249 | 2.38% |
| 50-59 | 50 | 21.7 | 8.1% | 178 | 1.42% |
| 60-69 | 26 | 12.9 | 5.3% | 117 | 1.02% |
| 70+ | 27 | 11.0 | 4.6% | 100 | 0.96% |
| All ages | 448 | 268.7 | 100% | 2188 | 2.09% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 04 | 21552 | 67787 | 624 | 163 | 1224 |
| Jan 05 | 21894 | 67905 | 627 | 163 | 1488 |
| Jan 06 | 22214 | 67998 | 627 | 163 | 1672 |
| Jan 07 | 22489 | 68146 | 630 | 165 | 1829 |
| Jan 08 | 22772 | 68196 | 630 | 165 | 1945 |
| Jan 09 | 22772 | 68275 | 630 | 165 | 1777 |
| Jan 10 | 23220 | 68388 | 636 | 166 | 2188 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 04 | 14181 | 39401 | 606 | 147 | 588 |
| Jan 05 | 14242 | 39446 | 608 | 147 | 648 |
| Jan 06 | 14332 | 39486 | 611 | 149 | 650 |
| Jan 07 | 14469 | 39559 | 617 | 149 | 701 |
| Jan 08 | 14522 | 39579 | 617 | 149 | 687 |
| Jan 09 | 14536 | 39615 | 617 | 149 | 596 |
| Jan 10 | 14679 | 39659 | 622 | 150 | 734 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 4.9 | 6.4% | 47 | 0.61% |
| 10-19 | 21 | 8.9 | 10.5% | 77 | 0.92% |
| 20-29 | 29 | 17.3 | 20% | 147 | 2.07% |
| 30-39 | 27 | 16.1 | 18.3% | 134 | 1.59% |
| 40-49 | 23 | 11.9 | 14.3% | 105 | 1.35% |
| 50-59 | 17 | 12.1 | 13.8% | 101 | 1.04% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 7.6 | 9.3% | 68 | 0.81% |
| 70+ | 13 | 6.3 | 7.5% | 55 | 0.77% |
| All ages | 143 | 85.0 | 100% | 734 | 1.14% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 04 | 10791 | 26301 | 479 | 119 | 413 |
| Jan 05 | 10886 | 26319 | 481 | 119 | 491 |
| Jan 06 | 10990 | 26353 | 483 | 119 | 571 |
| Jan 07 | 11073 | 26386 | 484 | 121 | 622 |
| Jan 08 | 11129 | 26394 | 484 | 121 | 610 |
| Jan 09 | 11179 | 26421 | 484 | 121 | 611 |
| Jan 10 | 11228 | 26435 | 485 | 121 | 607 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 4.9 | 6.1% | 37 | 0.68% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 7.7 | 9.4% | 57 | 1.05% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 11.9 | 16.3% | 99 | 2.19% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 13.4 | 17.8% | 108 | 1.99% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 12.3 | 17.1% | 104 | 2.09% |
| 50-59 | 10 | 11.3 | 16% | 97 | 1.43% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 6.3 | 9.9% | 60 | 0.95% |
| 70+ | 3 | 5.7 | 7.4% | 45 | 0.71% |
| All ages | 49 | 73.4 | 100% | 607 | 1.34% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 04 | 23510 | 80670 | 839 | 139 | 1800 |
| Jan 05 | 23904 | 80875 | 847 | 139 | 2107 |
| Jan 06 | 24320 | 81015 | 849 | 141 | 2425 |
| Jan 07 | 24751 | 81323 | 858 | 141 | 2645 |
| Jan 08 | 25072 | 81405 | 859 | 141 | 2862 |
| Jan 09 | 25192 | 81448 | 859 | 141 | 2895 |
| Jan 10 | 25431 | 81608 | 870 | 141 | 3003 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 34 | 33.3 | 9.5% | 284 | 2.4% |
| 10-19 | 32 | 53.3 | 15% | 450 | 2.72% |
| 20-29 | 51 | 88.9 | 25.1% | 754 | 3.54% |
| 30-39 | 45 | 61.3 | 18.4% | 552 | 4.06% |
| 40-49 | 31 | 40.4 | 12.5% | 374 | 2.75% |
| 50-59 | 28 | 33.6 | 10% | 300 | 2.11% |
| 60-69 | 13 | 18.9 | 5.7% | 170 | 1.2% |
| 70+ | 6 | 11.9 | 3.9% | 118 | 0.91% |
| All ages | 239 | 341.6 | 100% | 3003 | 2.54% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 04 | 74277 | 459479 | 2249 | 420 | 4296 |
| Jan 05 | 74941 | 460082 | 2248 | 421 | 4716 |
| Jan 06 | 75705 | 460997 | 2259 | 423 | 4632 |
| Jan 07 | 76789 | 461749 | 2271 | 425 | 5121 |
| Jan 08 | 76881 | 462239 | 2271 | 425 | 4657 |
| Jan 09 | 77227 | 462743 | 2271 | 425 | 4620 |
| Jan 10 | 77908 | 463607 | 2270 | 427 | 5297 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 162 | 96.3 | 15.3% | 813 | 1.35% |
| 10-19 | 186 | 122.0 | 20% | 1062 | 1.49% |
| 20-29 | 74 | 173.7 | 26.1% | 1383 | 1.33% |
| 30-39 | 103 | 94.9 | 15.1% | 800 | 1.05% |
| 40-49 | 67 | 64.9 | 10.2% | 541 | 0.82% |
| 50-59 | 56 | 44.7 | 7.1% | 376 | 0.57% |
| 60-69 | 28 | 24.7 | 3.8% | 201 | 0.37% |
| 70+ | 5 | 14.7 | 2.2% | 119 | 0.24% |
| All ages | 681 | 636.1 | 100% | 5297 | 0.97% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 04 | 1156050 | 3864425 | 55068 | 11319 | 69762 |
| Jan 05 | 1170504 | 3871307 | 55278 | 11376 | 81512 |
| Jan 06 | 1186066 | 3877693 | 55475 | 11402 | 90175 |
| Jan 07 | 1208194 | 3886034 | 55884 | 11473 | 104440 |
| Jan 08 | 1213316 | 3890415 | 55906 | 11474 | 100657 |
| Jan 09 | 1219470 | 3893374 | 55915 | 11475 | 98801 |
| Jan 10 | 1234281 | 3898731 | 56136 | 11527 | 109120 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1756 | 1339.0 | 10.2% | 11107 | 1.73% |
| 10-19 | 2524 | 1977.7 | 14.9% | 16263 | 2.15% |
| 20-29 | 2614 | 2648.3 | 19.9% | 21733 | 2.87% |
| 30-39 | 2382 | 2235.7 | 17.1% | 18642 | 2.46% |
| 40-49 | 1996 | 1803.4 | 13.7% | 14977 | 2.14% |
| 50-59 | 1802 | 1574.3 | 12% | 13097 | 1.61% |
| 60-69 | 1020 | 943.1 | 7.3% | 7972 | 1.05% |
| 70+ | 717 | 611.0 | 4.8% | 5256 | 0.82% |
| All ages | 14811 | 13141.6 | 100% | 109120 | 1.87% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.64 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-02-01 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 11556"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges